NFL Week 4: San Diego @ Pittsburgh
NFL Week 4: San Diego @ Pittsburgh – Expert NFL Picks
I’m back on track with a good win last week, as the Patriots took care of the Falcons quite easily – covering the spread of 4 points. This week, I feel particularly good about the Sunday and Monday night games. Primetime games can be predicted much more accurately in my estimation, and the Chargers/Steelers and Packers/Vikings games are definitely all over my radar. With that said, this week’s free NFL pick will come care of NBC’s Sunday Night Football matchup.
The Steelers are 1-2. A Super Bowl hangover, if you will. Pittsburgh had dropped two straight and finds themselves a couple of games behind the division leading Ravens at the moment. Pittsburgh really doesn’t want to lose three straight, especially with the opportunity to gain ground over the less talented opponents that they will face in weeks 5 and 6.
Phillip Rivers leads the Chargers. Though the run game has struggled through week 3, Rivers continues to make gains and has carried the team to two victories almost all on his own. Rivers leads the NFL with just under 1,000 passing yards and has performed exceptionally well in the fourth quarter. The Steelers have allowed two fourth quarter comeback since week 2.
Pittsburgh has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams, but let’s look at some underlying statistics:
- In 2008, Pittsburgh barely held on to win 11-10 at Heinz Field
- In 2007 the teams did not play each other
- 2006 saw a Steelers loss at the hands of the Chargers, 23-13
- Going back to 2005, the Steelers won in San Diego, but by a mere 2 points
The point is, there has been a rivalry created at the hands of the NFL. Just like the Colts and Patriots magically play each other every year somehow, the Steelers/Chargers game is becoming just as hyped each season. These games are almost always close, just as a divisional game might be, and the line here is way too big for the Steelers to cover at this very point in 2009. Things can change, but for now, the Steelers just don’t have it.
Just looking at the stats, the Chargers are ranked #2 in passing versus the Steelers 15th ranked pass defense. Pittsburgh has a slight edge in the running game, but it’s very slight – only a 15 yards per game differential. If Troy Polamalu is somehow back this week, I can see the Steelers pulling out a TOUGH win. However, it will still be very hard for them to cover the spread due to the toughness and verocity that the Chargers bring each time these teams faceoff. If Troy’s not back, which is most likely, I think it’s tough for the Steelers to even pull off a win this week. I like San Diego plus the points this coming Sunday night.
Free NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers + the points
More from Paul Knows Football: Monday Night Football Picks
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